Uncertainty analysis of risk-based flood safety standards in the Netherlands through a scenario-based approach

Flood risk quantification is a complex process involving chain of models. The approach contains many uncertainties which accumulate in the calculated flood risk. Risk-based safety standards are therefore prone to large uncertainty. This study aims quantify uncertainty risk-based for Dutch riverine case study. Through systematic using expert elicitation, key sources standard derivation identified. Uncertainty magnitudes quantified five main uncertainty, after these propagated through model scenario analysis derive standards. results show that highly uncertain given relative bandwidth 70%. found be most sensitive damage function and evacuation Also, we impact strongly depends on local characteristics.